Norm has issued the challenge. Here's my take.
I've been consuming the RCP poll roundups avidly for a week or two now. I've also been reading all the usual blogs. The key considerations seem to me to be:
- Bush has incumbency on his side - incumbents have rarely lost in American history. But note the dates: Bush 1992, Carter 1980, Ford 1976, Hoover 1932. Those are the most recent cases, and all but the last were in periods of relative crisis - the Great Depression, post Vietnam-and-Watergate, and in the trough of the post-1979 recession. We're in a crisis now, and a lot of people blame Bush for it. On the other hand, a lot - like the lady from Ohio I saw on the BBC this morning - seem to think it's best not to change horses in mid-stream.
- Kerry is taller.
- The Democrats may be suffering because they can't take the so-called ethnic vote for granted. Karl Rove apparently once said that if he could get an extra 3% of Hispanic-Americans voting Republican Bush couldn't lose. That may have had something to do with Bush's regularising the status of several million immigrants from Latin America a couple of years ago: not that gratitude would necessarily make them all vote for him, but it might help to tilt the balance. Bush being a Spanish-speaker may also help there, for instance in New Mexico, one of the battleground states.
- The polls this morning are showing either a tie (Pew, NBC), Bush ahead within the margin of error (CBS/NYT, Time), or Bush ahead outside the margin (Harris, Fox, Gallup, Newsweek). That's been the story for a week or so, and unless they're all wrong (perfectly possible) the logical conclusion is that Bush is ahead in the popular vote.
- But of course only the Electoral College counts. No matter which way you slice it, Bush pretty much has to take Ohio. It is theoretically possible for him to win without it, for instance by taking Minnesota and Wisconsin from the blue column, but although the Republicans seem quite excited about their prospects in Minnesota it feels like a false dawn to me. And the plain fact is that the Ohio race is as close as it gets.
Well, I could go on, but you're no doubt waiting with baited breath (assuming you're still awake). My answer to Norm's questions:
1. Bush.
2. By 1% in the popular vote.
3. By 15 in the Electoral College.
And would I put money on my prediction? Not a penny. I'd probably pay to avoid having to bet on it, if that makes any sense.